(function() { var didInit = false; function initMunchkin() { if(didInit === false) { didInit = true; Munchkin.init('105-GAR-921'); } } var s = document.createElement('script'); s.type = 'text/javascript'; s.defer = true; s.src = '//munchkin.marketo.net/munchkin.js'; s.onreadystatechange = function() { if (this.readyState == 'complete' || this.readyState == 'loaded') { initMunchkin(); } }; s.onload = initMunchkin; document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(s); })();(function(h,o,t,j,a,r){ h.hj=h.hj||function(){(h.hj.q=h.hj.q||[]).push(arguments)}; h._hjSettings={hjid:1422437,hjsv:6}; a=o.getElementsByTagName('head')[0]; r=o.createElement('script');r.defer=1; r.src=t+h._hjSettings.hjid+j+h._hjSettings.hjsv; a.appendChild(r); })(window,document,'https://static.hotjar.com/c/hotjar-','.js?sv=');

Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price started a steady increase above the $90 resistance.
  • It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at $90.70 on the 4-hours chart.
  • GBP/USD failed to recover and started a fresh decline.
  • The US ADP Employment could change 200K in August 2022, up from 128K.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the $85 level, crude oil price started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The price was able to clear the $90 and $92 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, there was a break above the $92.50 barrier, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $103.63 swing high to $85.81 low. The bulls even pushed the price above the $95 resistance zone. However, they failed to lead the price towards the $100 resistance.

The price struggled near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $103.63 swing high to $85.81 low. A high was formed near the $97.60 zone.

The price corrected a few points below the $96 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). The next major support is near $91.50. The main support sits near $90.00, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $86.50 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $85 zone.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $96.50 and $97.50 levels. A clear move above the $97.50 resistance could set the pace for a larger increase towards $100. The next major resistance is near $102.50, above which the price could accelerate higher towards the $105 zone.

Looking at the GBP/USD pair, the pair struggled to correct higher and there is a clear risk of a move below the 1.1600 support zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Germany’s Unemployment Change for August 2022 - Forecast 28K, versus 48K previous.
  • Germany’s Unemployment Rate for August 2022 – Forecast 5.5%, versus 5.4% previous.
  • US ADP Employment Change for August 2022 - Forecast 200K, versus 128K previous.
  • Canadian Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2022 (Annualized) – Forecast +2.1%, versus 3.5% previous.