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GBP/USD Could Resume Decline Below 1.3540

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • GBP/USD is struggling to climb above the 1.3650 resistance zone.
  • It surpassed a bearish trend line at 1.3590 on the 4-hours chart.
  • EUR/USD is trading in a bearish zone below 1.1650.
  • The UK ILO Unemployment Rate could decline from 4.6% to 4.5% in August 2021 (3M).

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a steady recovery wave from the 1.3410 zone against the US Dollar. GBP/USD recovered above the 1.3500 and 1.3550 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair surpassed a bearish trend line at 1.3590. There was also a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3747 swing high to 1.3411 low.

However, the pair seems to be facing resistance near 1.3650 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). It is now slowly moving lower and trading below 1.3600.

An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3560 level. The next key support is near 1.3540, below which the pair may possibly continue lower towards the 1.3440 level.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.3630 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.3650 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3747 swing high to 1.3411 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.3700 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). Any more gains could lift the pair towards the 1.3770 and 1.3800 levels.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is still trading well below 1.1650 and it remains at a risk of more downsides below 1.1550.

Economic Releases

  • UK Claimant Count Change for Sep 2021 – Forecast -28K, versus -58.6K previous.
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate for August 2021 (3M) – Forecast 4.5%, versus 4.6% previous.
  • German ZEW Business Economic Sentiment Index for Oct 2021 – Forecast 24, versus 26.5 previous.
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