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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • USD/CHF started a fresh increase after testing the 0.9000 support region.
  • There was a break above a crucial bearish trend line at 0.9090 on the 4-hours chart.
  • The US ADP Employment changed 428K in August 2020, less than the 950K market forecast.
  • The US ISM Services PMI is likely to decline from 58.1 to 57.0 in August 2020.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

This past week, the US Dollar extended its decline below 0.9100 against the Swiss Franc. However, USD/CHF found strong support near 0.9000, resulting in a fresh increase.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as low as 0.8998 and recently climbed above the 0.9050 resistance. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9161 high to 0.8998 low.

Moreover, there was a break above a crucial bearish trend line at 0.9090. The pair surpassed the 0.9100 resistance and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

However, the pair is likely to face a strong resistance near the 0.9150 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours), above which it could revisit the 0.9200 zone. If it fails to continue higher, there are chances of a fresh dip towards 0.9020.

Fundamentally, the US ADP Employment Change figure for August 2020 was released yesterday by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The market was looking for an increase of 950K.

The actual result was disappointing, as private sector employment increased by 428K. jobs from July to August according to the August 2020.

Overall, USD/CHF must surpass 0.9150 and 0.9160 for upside continuation. Looking at EUR/USD and GBP/USD, both started a strong downside correction below 1.1900 and 1.3350 respectively.

Upcoming Economic Releases

  • Germany’s Services PMI for August 2020 - Forecast 50.8, versus 50.8 previous.
  • Euro Zone Services PMI for August 2020 – Forecast 50.1, versus 50.1 previous.
  • UK Services PMI for August 2020 – Forecast 60.1, versus 60.1 previous.
  • US Services PMI for August 2020 – Forecast 54.8, versus 54.8 previous.
  • US ISM Services PMI for August 2020 – Forecast 57.0, versus 58.1 previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 950K, versus 1,006K previous.