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USD/JPY Dips As Market Awaits Key US NFP Release

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY started a downside correction from the 137.90 zone.
  • A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 135.95 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Bitcoin price declined sharply and tested the $20,000 support zone.
  • The US nonfarm payrolls could increase 205K in Feb 2023, less than the last 517K.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar remained in a strong uptrend above 135.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY climbed higher towards the 138.00 before it faced sellers.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as high as 137.91. The pair settled well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

Recently, there was a downside correction below the 137.20 support. The pair even traded below the 136.00 level and formed a low at 135.80. It is now moving higher and trading above the 136.20 level.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 135.95 on the same chart. An immediate resistance is near the 136.85 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 137.91 swing high to 135.80 low.

The next major resistance is near the 137.40 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 137.91 swing high to 135.80 low.

A clear move above the 137.40 resistance might start a steady increase towards the 138.00 zone. Any more gains might send the pair towards 138.80.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 136.00 level. The next major support is near the 135.50 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), below which there is a risk of a move towards the 134.20 level.

Looking at Bitcoin price, there was a sharp decline below the $21,200 and $20,500 support levels. The price tested the $20,000 support and started a consolidation phase.

Economic Releases

  • UK GDP for Jan 2023 (MoM) - Forecast +0.1%, versus -0.5% previous.
  • US nonfarm payrolls for Feb 2023 – Forecast 205K, versus 517K previous.
  • US Unemployment Rate for Feb 2023 - Forecast 3.4%, versus 3.4% previous.
  • Canada’s employment Change payrolls for Feb 2023 – Forecast 10K, versus 150K previous.
  • Canada’s Unemployment Rate for Feb 2023 - Forecast 5.1%, versus 5.0% previous.
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