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USD/JPY Targets Fresh High, US NFP Next

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY started a fresh increase from the 128.60 zone.
  • A crucial bullish trend line is forming with support near 129.25 on the 4-hours chart.
  • EUR/USD failed to stay above 1.0600, and GBP/USD declined sharply below 1.2450.
  • The US nonfarm payrolls could increase 391K in April 2022, less than the last 431K.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a downside correction from the 131.25 high against the Japanese Yen. However, USD/JPY remained well bid above 128.50 and started a fresh increase.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as low as 128.62 and remained well above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours), and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

The pair started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the 129.50 resistance. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 131.25 swing high to 128.62 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is forming near the 130.70 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 131.25 swing high to 128.62 low. The next major resistance is near the 131.25 high.

If there is an upside break above 131.25, the pair could accelerate higher towards 132.00. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 129.80.

There is also a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near 129.25 on the same chart. Any more losses may perhaps push USD/JPY towards the 128.60 support.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to stay above 1.0600 and reacted the downside. GBP/USD faced sellers near 1.2640 and reacted sharply below 1.2450.

Economic Releases

  • US nonfarm payrolls for April 2022 – Forecast 391K, versus 431K previous.
  • US Unemployment Rate for April 2022 - Forecast 3.5%, versus 3.6% previous.
  • Canada’s employment Change payrolls for April 2022 – Forecast 55K, versus 72.5K previous.
  • Canada’s Unemployment Rate for April 2022 - Forecast 5.2%, versus 5.3% previous.
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